Methodology

How MetroSgnl reads markets

Every major US metro is read two ways. First a standing condition, from Tight to Oversupplied, that says where the balance sits between renters and landlords. Then a direction, heating or cooling, that says which way the fast signals are pointing. No black box, no opinions, no 1-to-10 score. Public data, applied consistently across the major US markets.

The condition comes from the slower, structural side, vacancy and the rent picture. The direction is computed only from the fast movers, asking rent and jobs, because those are the figures that actually change month to month.

The condition scale

The standing state of the market, in plain English. It describes conditions; it is not a rating and not a recommendation.

Tight

Very low availability. Landlords have the strongest pricing power.

Firm

Availability is limited. Landlords hold the edge.

Balanced

Neither side has a clear edge.

Soft

Ample availability. Renters have the edge.

Oversupplied

Availability is high. Renters have the most choice.

The direction

Heating, Cooling, or Steady is the moving verdict. It is computed only from the fast monthly movers, asking rent and jobs, so it reflects what is actually changing now, not a yearly figure dressed up as fresh news. Heating means the fast signals favour landlords; Cooling means they favour renters; Steady means little net movement.

What we read, and how often it updates

Each figure is labelled with how often its public source publishes. That label is the point: it tells you how fresh a number is, and it is why we never describe a yearly figure as if it moved this week.

Asking rent

Monthly· Zillow ZORI

The freshest rent signal, year over year. One of the two fast movers behind the direction.

Jobs

Monthly· BLS State & Area Employment

Employment growth, the main demand driver. The other fast mover behind the direction.

Vacancy

Yearly· US Census Bureau

Share of rentals sitting empty. A standing yearly snapshot, part of the condition.

New supply / permits

Yearly· US Census Bureau (building permits)

New multifamily permitting. A standing yearly snapshot.

Net migration

Yearly· US Census Bureau

Population flow between metros. A standing yearly snapshot.

Rates

Weekly· FRED, Freddie Mac

The 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage, the national backdrop.

News

Daily· MetroSgnl news feed

Local multifamily headlines for each metro.

Cadence honesty

A year-old vacancy figure and this month’s asking rent are both true, but they are not equally fresh. So we keep them separate. Only asking rent and jobs, the monthly signals, are ever described as moving. Vacancy, new supply, and migration are shown as a dated yearly snapshot, never as a live change, and never pitted against each other as a race. We recompute the read every morning, but a figure only changes when its own source publishes, and we attribute that cadence to the source rather than implying we choose to be slow.

Update cadence

Daily

The read is recomputed; news feed and the rate backdrop refresh

Every morning

Weekly

Mortgage rates and rent-vs-buy

As released

Monthly

Asking rent (Zillow ZORI) and jobs (BLS), the fast movers

As each source publishes

Yearly

Vacancy, building permits, and net migration (US Census Bureau)

When Census releases

Data integrity

We read a market only from verified source data. We never estimate, interpolate, or invent a value. If a source does not publish a figure for a metro, that figure is shown as not available, never a made-up number and never a fresher date than the source provides. A monthly figure holds steady until that source updates.

All source data is logged to an append-only audit trail with the run timestamp, so every read is reproducible and traceable back to its source data point.

You can download the full latest dataset and check it against the original sources below.

Download and verify the data

The latest read for each market, with the raw source figures behind it. CSV, opens in Excel or Google Sheets.

Download CSV

Every figure traces to a public source. Verify any of them at the origin:

FAQ

Questions about how we read markets