Methodology
How MetroSgnl reads markets
Every major US metro is read two ways. First a standing condition, from Tight to Oversupplied, that says where the balance sits between renters and landlords. Then a direction, heating or cooling, that says which way the fast signals are pointing. No black box, no opinions, no 1-to-10 score. Public data, applied consistently across the major US markets.
The condition comes from the slower, structural side, vacancy and the rent picture. The direction is computed only from the fast movers, asking rent and jobs, because those are the figures that actually change month to month.
The condition scale
The standing state of the market, in plain English. It describes conditions; it is not a rating and not a recommendation.
Tight
Very low availability. Landlords have the strongest pricing power.
Firm
Availability is limited. Landlords hold the edge.
Balanced
Neither side has a clear edge.
Soft
Ample availability. Renters have the edge.
Oversupplied
Availability is high. Renters have the most choice.
The direction
Heating, Cooling, or Steady is the moving verdict. It is computed only from the fast monthly movers, asking rent and jobs, so it reflects what is actually changing now, not a yearly figure dressed up as fresh news. Heating means the fast signals favour landlords; Cooling means they favour renters; Steady means little net movement.
What we read, and how often it updates
Each figure is labelled with how often its public source publishes. That label is the point: it tells you how fresh a number is, and it is why we never describe a yearly figure as if it moved this week.
Asking rent
Monthly· Zillow ZORIThe freshest rent signal, year over year. One of the two fast movers behind the direction.
Jobs
Monthly· BLS State & Area EmploymentEmployment growth, the main demand driver. The other fast mover behind the direction.
Vacancy
Yearly· US Census BureauShare of rentals sitting empty. A standing yearly snapshot, part of the condition.
New supply / permits
Yearly· US Census Bureau (building permits)New multifamily permitting. A standing yearly snapshot.
Net migration
Yearly· US Census BureauPopulation flow between metros. A standing yearly snapshot.
Rates
Weekly· FRED, Freddie MacThe 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage, the national backdrop.
News
Daily· MetroSgnl news feedLocal multifamily headlines for each metro.
Cadence honesty
A year-old vacancy figure and this month’s asking rent are both true, but they are not equally fresh. So we keep them separate. Only asking rent and jobs, the monthly signals, are ever described as moving. Vacancy, new supply, and migration are shown as a dated yearly snapshot, never as a live change, and never pitted against each other as a race. We recompute the read every morning, but a figure only changes when its own source publishes, and we attribute that cadence to the source rather than implying we choose to be slow.
Update cadence
Daily
The read is recomputed; news feed and the rate backdrop refresh
Every morning
Weekly
Mortgage rates and rent-vs-buy
As released
Monthly
Asking rent (Zillow ZORI) and jobs (BLS), the fast movers
As each source publishes
Yearly
Vacancy, building permits, and net migration (US Census Bureau)
When Census releases
Data integrity
We read a market only from verified source data. We never estimate, interpolate, or invent a value. If a source does not publish a figure for a metro, that figure is shown as not available, never a made-up number and never a fresher date than the source provides. A monthly figure holds steady until that source updates.
All source data is logged to an append-only audit trail with the run timestamp, so every read is reproducible and traceable back to its source data point.
You can download the full latest dataset and check it against the original sources below.
Download and verify the data
The latest read for each market, with the raw source figures behind it. CSV, opens in Excel or Google Sheets.
Download CSVEvery figure traces to a public source. Verify any of them at the origin:
FAQ