Methodology
How MetroSgnl reads markets
Every metro we track is read two ways. First a standing condition, from Tight to Oversupplied, that says where the balance sits between renters and landlords. Then a direction that says whether that balance is moving toward renters or landlords right now. No black box and no opinions. Public data, applied the same way across every market we track.
The condition scale
The standing state of the market, in plain English. It describes conditions; it is not a rating and not a recommendation.
Asking rents have grown strongly over the past year. Landlords have the strongest pricing power.
Asking rents have grown over the past year. Landlords hold the edge.
Asking rent growth is close to flat. Neither side has a clear edge.
Asking rent growth has stalled or turned negative. Renters have more room to negotiate.
Asking rents are well below a year ago. Renters have the most room to negotiate.
The direction
The direction is the moving verdict. It is computed only from the monthly movers, asking rent and jobs, so it reflects what is actually changing now, not a yearly figure dressed up as fresh news.
Rents and jobs are pushing toward landlords.
Rents and jobs are pushing toward renters.
Rents are still below last year, but the fall is closing fast.
Rents are still well up on last year, but rising less than they were.
Little net movement either way.
The two disagree: one points toward landlords, the other toward renters.
What we read, and how often it updates
Each figure is labelled with how often its public source publishes. That label is the point: it tells you how fresh a number is, and it is why we never describe a yearly figure as if it moved this week.
Asking rent
Monthly· Zillow ZORIThe freshest rent figure we have, against the same month a year earlier. One of the two monthly movers behind the direction.
Jobs
Monthly· BLS State & Area EmploymentEmployment growth, the main demand driver. The other fast mover behind the direction.
Vacancy
Yearly· US Census BureauShare of rentals sitting empty. A standing yearly snapshot, shown as background to the condition rather than what sets it.
New supply / permits
Yearly· US Census Bureau (building permits)New multifamily permitting. A standing yearly snapshot.
Domestic migration
Yearly· US Census BureauPeople moving in from elsewhere in the US, minus those leaving for other US places. A standing yearly snapshot, and it does not count arrivals from other countries.
Rates
Weekly· FRED, Freddie MacThe 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage, the national backdrop.
Renter search demand
Monthly· Google Ads Keyword Planner, monthly, via DataForSEOWhat renters are searching to rent, by metro and rental type. The data originates with Google. It shows where renters are looking, and it is not part of the condition or the direction.
News
Daily· Real estate trade press, and local news headlines via Google NewsLocal housing headlines for each metro. Trade press comes first; Google News fills in markets the trade press does not cover. Every headline is checked for relevance to that market before it appears.
Cadence honesty
- A year-old vacancy figure and this month’s asking rent are both true, but not equally fresh, so we keep them separate.
- Only asking rent and jobs, the monthly figures, are ever described as moving.
- Vacancy, new supply, and migration are shown as a dated yearly snapshot, never as a live change.
- We recompute every morning, but a figure only changes when its own source publishes.
The rent versus buy figure
The monthly cost of owning on a market page is the unrecoverable cost, not a mortgage payment: the metro’s median home value multiplied by the year’s property tax, upkeep and the mortgage rate, divided by twelve. It counts nothing that comes back as equity, and it leaves out insurance, a deposit and any association fees.
- Home value and median rent are the US Census Bureau ACS 1-year figures for the metro, a yearly count with its year shown.
- The mortgage rate is the Freddie Mac 30 year average for the week, so the figure moves every week.
- The property tax rate is the average rate owners in this metro pay, from the Census. In states that cap assessments, such as California and Florida, a new buyer pays more than this.
- Upkeep is a rule of thumb, 1% of the home value a year.
Update cadence
Daily
The read is recomputed; news feed and the rate backdrop refresh
Every morning
Weekly
Mortgage rates and rent-vs-buy
As released
Monthly
Asking rent (Zillow ZORI) and jobs (BLS), the fast movers
As each source publishes
Yearly
Vacancy, building permits, and domestic migration (US Census Bureau)
When Census releases
Data integrity
We read a market only from verified source data. We never estimate, interpolate, or invent a value. If a source does not publish a figure for a metro, that figure is shown as not available, never a made-up number and never a fresher date than the source provides. A monthly figure holds steady until that source updates.
All source data is logged to an append-only audit trail with the run timestamp, so every read is reproducible and traceable back to its source data point.
You can download the full latest dataset and check it against the original sources below.
Download and verify the data
The latest read for each market, with the raw source figures behind it. CSV, opens in Excel or Google Sheets.
Download CSVEach US Census column names its year in the column header, for example “Vacancy Rate% (Census 2024)” and “Migration Net /1k (Census 2025)”, because the Census counts each figure in its own year. Since 18 September 2026 the file no longer has a separate “Vacancy As Of” column: that year is now in the vacancy header.
Every figure traces to a public source. Verify any of them at the origin:
FAQ