Methodology
How MetroSgnl reads markets
Every major US metro is read two ways. First a standing condition, from Tight to Oversupplied, that says where the balance sits between renters and landlords. Then a direction that says whether that balance is moving toward renters or landlords right now. No black box and no opinions. Public data, applied the same way across every major US market.
The condition scale
The standing state of the market, in plain English. It describes conditions; it is not a rating and not a recommendation.
Tight
Asking rents have grown strongly over the past year. Landlords have the strongest pricing power.
Firm
Asking rents have grown over the past year. Landlords hold the edge.
Balanced
Asking rent growth is close to flat. Neither side has a clear edge.
Soft
Asking rent growth has stalled or turned negative. Renters have more room to negotiate.
Oversupplied
Asking rents are well below a year ago. Renters have the most room to negotiate.
The direction
Heating, Cooling, Stable, or Mixed is the moving verdict. It is computed only from the monthly movers, asking rent and jobs, so it reflects what is actually changing now, not a yearly figure dressed up as fresh news. Heating means those movers favor landlords, Cooling means they favor renters, Stable means little net movement, and Mixed means they disagree, with one pointing toward landlords and the other toward renters.
What we read, and how often it updates
Each figure is labelled with how often its public source publishes. That label is the point: it tells you how fresh a number is, and it is why we never describe a yearly figure as if it moved this week.
Asking rent
Monthly· Zillow ZORIThe freshest rent signal, year over year. One of the two fast movers behind the direction.
Jobs
Monthly· BLS State & Area EmploymentEmployment growth, the main demand driver. The other fast mover behind the direction.
Vacancy
Yearly· US Census BureauShare of rentals sitting empty. A standing yearly snapshot, shown as background context to the condition, not the anchor.
New supply / permits
Yearly· US Census Bureau (building permits)New multifamily permitting. A standing yearly snapshot.
Net migration
Yearly· US Census BureauPopulation flow between metros. A standing yearly snapshot.
Rates
Weekly· FRED, Freddie MacThe 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage, the national backdrop.
Renter search demand
Monthly· Google Ads Keyword PlannerWhat renters are searching to rent, by metro and rental type. The data originates with Google. A demand-side context signal, not part of the condition or direction.
News
Daily· Real estate trade press, and local news headlines via Google NewsLocal housing headlines for each metro. Trade press comes first; Google News fills in markets the trade press does not cover. Every headline is checked for relevance to that market before it appears.
Cadence honesty
- A year-old vacancy figure and this month’s asking rent are both true, but not equally fresh, so we keep them separate.
- Only asking rent and jobs, the monthly signals, are ever described as moving.
- Vacancy, new supply, and migration are shown as a dated yearly snapshot, never as a live change.
- We recompute every morning, but a figure only changes when its own source publishes.
Update cadence
Daily
The read is recomputed; news feed and the rate backdrop refresh
Every morning
Weekly
Mortgage rates and rent-vs-buy
As released
Monthly
Asking rent (Zillow ZORI) and jobs (BLS), the fast movers
As each source publishes
Yearly
Vacancy, building permits, and net migration (US Census Bureau)
When Census releases
Data integrity
We read a market only from verified source data. We never estimate, interpolate, or invent a value. If a source does not publish a figure for a metro, that figure is shown as not available, never a made-up number and never a fresher date than the source provides. A monthly figure holds steady until that source updates.
All source data is logged to an append-only audit trail with the run timestamp, so every read is reproducible and traceable back to its source data point.
You can download the full latest dataset and check it against the original sources below.
Download and verify the data
The latest read for each market, with the raw source figures behind it. CSV, opens in Excel or Google Sheets.
Download CSVEach US Census column names its year in the column header, for example “Vacancy Rate% (Census 2024)” and “Migration Net /1k (Census 2025)”, because the Census counts each figure in its own year. Since 18 September 2026 the file no longer has a separate “Vacancy As Of” column: that year is now in the vacancy header.
Every figure traces to a public source. Verify any of them at the origin:
Photo credits
The header photo on each market page, where it came from and the terms it is used under. Every entry is read from the photo’s own source page.
Wikimedia Commons · 16 photos
| Market | Photo | License | Photographer | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusta GA | File:Augusta Georgia VA Downtown.jpg | Public domain | United States federal government | No credit required |
| Bakersfield CA | File:2008-0621-Bakersfield-pan.JPG | CC BY 3.0 | Bobak Ha'Eri | Credit required |
| Bridgeport CT | File:Bridgeport, CT skyline.jpg | CC BY 4.0 | Quintin Soloviev | Credit required |
| Columbia SC | File:Downtown Columbia, SC.jpg | CC BY 2.0 | Fotisto | Credit required |
| Fresno CA | File:Downtown Fresno1.JPG | CC0 | Gemini2525 | No credit required |
| Jackson MS | File:JacksonMS Downtown Panorama.jpg | CC BY 2.0 | chmeredith | Credit required |
| Little Rock AR | File:LittleRock panorama.JPG | CC BY 3.0 | Zereshk | Credit required |
| Melbourne FL | File:Downtown Melbourne, Florida.jpg | CC BY 4.0 | Pokemonprime | Credit required |
| Ogden UT | File:Downtown ogden.jpg | Public domain | Weberstate | No credit required |
| Omaha NE | File:Skyline of the Downtown Omaha, Nebraska from Heartland of America Park.jpg | Public domain | Iulus Ascanius at English Wikipedia | No credit required |
| Provo UT | File:Provo skyline winter.jpg | Public domain | UtahStizzle | No credit required |
| Rochester NY | File:Downtown Rochester, NY HDR by patrickashley.jpg | CC BY 2.0 | Patrick Ashley | Credit required |
| Springfield MA | File:Downtown Springfield, MA.jpg | Public domain | User:Expos1225 | No credit required |
| Stockton CA | File:Aerial view of Stockton, California skyline.jpg | CC BY 4.0 | Quintin Soloviev | Credit required |
| Winston-Salem NC | File:Downtown Winston Salem.jpg | CC BY 2.0 | Ron Miguel from North Carolina, USA | Credit required |
| Worcester MA | File:Downtown Worcester at night from Union Station garage.jpg | CC BY 4.0 | 4300streetcar | Credit required |
Pexels · 78 photos
Used under the Pexels License, which does not require attribution. Photographers are named here anyway.
No photo, by choice rather than by gap: McAllen, Toledo. Its page shows a plain header.
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